The three necessary elements of this rough thesis statement are listed as follows.
Topic: earthquake prediction
Controlling idea: systematic observation of all phenomena prior to an earthquake
Direction of development: a listing and analysis of different kinds of phenomena and how these have helped to predict earth- quakes.
However, many and varied phenomena might be related to earthquakes. The phenomena may include, to mention a few, abnormal animal behaviour, abnormal weather conditions, and abnormal geographical phenomena. If we are to write a fairly short academic paper, for example a 3,000-word paper, this scope is too broad. We must narrow the scope.
As our reading and research deepen, we may gradually find that abnormal animal behavior provides more recorded observations and is therefore easier to handle. We rewrite the rough thesis statement to provide a more specific focus:
Systematic and Careful analysis of recorded observations of all abnormal animal behavior prior to an earthquake is helping in successful earthquake predictions.
Obviously, this second Version provides a narrower focus to the discussion. However, further research along these lines reveals that most of the recorded observations of abnormal animal behavior come from countries where earthquakes often happen and where such observations have been recorded more completely.